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Beware This Post Really Stinks…
Written by Steve | Published: |
The story I am about to share with you is a real story that happened to one of my friends, but fair warning, do not eat while reading this experience.
When I was in college one of my friends (let’s call him John) was encouraged to ask this girl out (let’s call her Jane). They both were very fit and active and seemed to have a lot in common and some mutual friends connected them to go on a date.
During the middle of the week John gave Jane a call and asked if she wanted to go hike some caves on Saturday morning. Knowing a little bit about John she excitedly accepted.
On Saturday morning a couple hours before Jane was supposed to be picked up, her stomach did not feel right. In normal circumstances she would have avoided hiking and spelunking, but she didn’t want to miss out on the opportunity of going out with John, and didn’t want to send the wrong message by canceling on him at the last minute.
On the drive there, Jane’s stomach intensified with pain and she started to panic even thinking about the hike through the caves.
Somehow she pulled through and made it through all the caves with John but her stomach was wrecked.
When John and Jane got within 50 yards of the car where there were some restrooms, Jane couldn’t take it anymore. She started running toward the bathrooms…
Unfortunately, Jane didn’t make it in time and created havoc all over her new jeans.
Jane didn’t know what to do, she tried to rinse her clothes in the sink but that did not help at all.
After what felt like forever she finally yelled for John and told him what happened.
As a gentleman, he took off his shirt and let her wear it since her other clothes were a mess.
Jane didn’t want to throw away her clothes because she had just bought them and put them in the back of the car. However, this was a terrible idea, because the smell was so bad.
So there they were driving back for an hour, John with no shirt, Jane wearing only John’s shirt and the windows down to try and keep the stench out of the car.
Needless to say there was no second date for this handsome couple.
Moral of the story…
When a storm is brewing, don’t ignore the warning signs.
So here is an indicator chart and let me tell you what it means and you can decide if this is a significant warning sign or not.
This chart shows the 10 year treasury yield minus the 2 year treasury yield. When that number is below zero (or negative) they call it inverted.
An inverted yield curve means that the 2 year treasury is paying more than a 10 year treasury. In other words domestic and international investors speculate that the U.S. economy may have some short term strength but not a good long term outlook.
If you look closer back in time, notice over the past 25 years where the chart is significantly inverted.
Right before the 2000 crash and then again right before the 2008 crash.
Now look how much more deeply the yield curve is inverted today.
I’m not saying there is going to be a crash tomorrow (I’m not ruling it out either) but I am pointing out a big warning sign that a storm is brewing.
Now is the time to prepare.
If you have all your assets in risk based investments, you may want to consider moving a portion of your assets flight to safety (especially when we can get great returns without the risk.) If you need help or have any questions at all jump on our calendar and let me or one of my team members see what we can do.